HERE’S HOW 9 PREDICTIONS ABOUT GAY MARRIAGE TURNED OUT JONATHAN… HERE’S HOW 9 PREDICTIONS

HERE’S HOW 9 PREDICTIONS ABOUT GAY MARRIAGE TURNED OUT JONATHAN… HERE’S HOW 9 PREDICTIONS ABOUT GAY MARRIAGE TURNED OUT JONATHAN RAUCHA senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, Jonathan Rauch is the author of numerous columns in newspapers and magazines. He is also the author of six books, including his 2015 e-book Political Realism. His primary focus has been on public policy, but he also writes on cultural issues, especially gay marriage. In 2014, he published Gay Marriage: Why It Is Good for Gays, Good for Straights, and Good for America. In 2013, he published Denial: My 25 Years without a Soul, a memoir of his experience with his sexuality. Rauch summed up his years of writing on same-sex marriage in the following essay.411PREREADING QUESTIONS How effective do you expect Rauch to have been in his predictions? If you had anticipated the issue of same-sex marriage going to the Supreme Court in 2015, how would you have predicted the outcome?1Not often—in fact, pretty much never—have I been lost for words in the gay-marriage debate. But the Supreme Court’s national legalization of marriage equality leaves me gaping and gawping like a guppy. For a homosexual man of my generation, born in 1960 and deeply etched with wounds of self-loathing, discrimination, and bigotry, events in America now feel like the end of a Hollywood movie. Or, perhaps, the beginning a classic rock song, by Queen. Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?2Although most people correctly predicted how the Supreme Court would rule in Obergefell v. Hodges, my overriding feeling is still, in a word: surprise. How—how in the world—did we get here? I’ve written hundreds of thousands of words about same-sex marriage over a period of two decades, including many predictions. Perhaps there is insight to be had by looking back on nine of them. ©Greg Hinsdale/Corbis/VCG/Getty Images3How did I do? A mixed bag. Three of my predictions have been wrong, indeed spectacularly (and revealingly) so. Three have been borne out (also revealingly). The jury remains out on three more. Let’s start with those.41) “A Supreme Court decision imposing gay marriage will spark a fierce backlash.”For years, I said the federal courts should butt out of the gay marriage debate and leave it to states, where consensus could be gradually and organically developed. I feared that involving the U.S. Constitution too soon would short-circuit a vital process of social persuasion and deprive us of the deeper kind of civil rights victory that comes only from broad public consensus, not from courts.5It’s too early to know how Obergefell will go down. Republican presidential candidates are mostly hostile. But I believe my prediction, although sensible at the time, has passed its sell-by date. A solid national majority now supports same-sex marriage, and holdout states are moving in that direction. When I asked a couple of well-connected social conservatives whether they or others in their world were likely to go to the barricades in a multi-decade campaign of resistance 412like the one over abortion, both said no. One of them told me, “We could all see that the battle over same-sex marriage was over, and that was true regardless of how the court ruled in this case.”6Here is my guess: Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, the author of the court’s five-member-majority decision, is the most astute politician in America (counting Bill Clinton as retired). He has shown a flawless knack for knowing how far he can bend public opinion without breaking it, and I believe he has correctly judged that the country is ready to accept his decision.72) “Gay marriage won’t lead to polygamous marriage.”Predictably, the Court’s decision led to another of countless rounds of forecasts that the marriage-rights movement will now expand to multiples. (Like this.) Again, we’ll see, but I’m willing to stand by what I’ve long said: the case for gay marriage is the case against polygamy, and the public will be smart enough to understand the difference.8Gay marriage is about extending the opportunity to marry to people who lack it; polygamy, in practice, is about exactly the opposite: withdrawing marriage opportunity from people who now have it. Gay marriage succeeded because no one could identify any plausible channels through which it might damage heterosexual marriage; with polygamy, the worries are many, the history clear, and the channels well understood.9I won’t repeat the reasons; you can read some of them in this article by me or this new book by Stephen Macedo, among many other places. Predicting politics is hard, but I believe polygamy, if it even gets traction as a matter of public debate, will be decided as a policy question, not a civil-rights question—and the answer, correctly, will be no.103) “Same-sex marriage will be part of a broader renewal of the culture of marriage.”I’ve always believed that cultural conservatives misunderstood the gay-marriage movement: far from being an attack on the culture of marriage, it represented a shift back toward family values by a group that had learned the hard way, through eviction by their own parents and suffering in the AIDS crisis, how important marriage and commitment and family really are.11Perhaps same-sex marriage will not have cultural coattails. I hope and believe, however, that gay America’s embrace of marriage has sparked renewed interest and appreciation among straight Americans. And the marriage-equality movement has warmed many on the social left to a pro-family agenda. It’s possible now, as never before, to be pro-marriage without being anti-gay. And the big message of gay marriage—”Pro-marriage is pro-equality”—resonates across the spectrum. More than 100 prominent Americans, of varied political and partisan stripe, have already signed a statement calling for a new Marriage Opportunity movement building on the cultural momentum of gay marriage. This is only a beginning, but it is a breeze in the right direction.12So those are predictions where the jury remains out. Now for three I was right about.   Main Post: Share “Good to Great” Techniques You Picked up in Your Textbook ReadingsTo begin, look over the readings (sample essays/articles) of the text. Read as many as you’d like; you do not need to choose just one. You are not evaluating one essay in this discussion (although you may work with just one if you would like). Rather, you are evaluating argument techniques, effective word choice and transitions, the author’s voice, and the development of points with evidence. Not everything in these readings will be relevant for you; it is your job to find those powerful gems of wisdom that make you think, “Yes! I can apply this same technique!”So, as you look through the readings and choose single items and sections to focus on, take your own notes and jot down your own thoughts before writing and posting your formal response to the following:Quote one exact passage from a reading explaining the technique that appealed to you. This may be a particular use of logic, the way an author puts flair on a synthesis of support and opposition, a transition technique you had not considered, the way an author discusses (concedes and refutes) an opposing viewpoint, how an author drives the writing with voice, or any argument technique that “spoke to you.” Next, explain in as much detail as possible how you will use this technique in your own argument research essay. Which portion of your essay and/or with which source? How will you apply it to strengthen your essay?Example structure:Quotation: (quote, cite in-text, and include at the end of your post a full reference)Technique that appealed to you in this quotation and why (being as detailed as possible).How you will use the technique: Be very specific and detailed, explaining exactly where in your essay you would like to use it, in which section, with sources, for voice, for anything that contributes to the effectiveness of your essay.  Health Science Science Nursing ENGLISH 147 N Share QuestionEmailCopy link Comments (0)

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